"ANZ Job Ads decreased 1.1 per cent m/m in July, a signal that we may be past the peak. But even if labour demand growth is starting to ease, we don’t think that will translate immediately into rising unemployment and underemployment." ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch said.
"In fact, we now forecast unemployment to fall below 3 per cent by early-2023. This reflects both the sharp improvement in the June data, with employment rising by 88,400 and unemployment dropping 0.4ppt to 3.5 per cent, as well as the record high job vacancy rate. ABS job vacancies have significantly outpaced ANZ Job Ads during the pandemic recovery, as discussed in last month’s report, but both point to a significant volume of unfilled labour demand.
There are 480,000 job vacancies across the economy, with sharp rises evident in most industries and geographies. Consequently, as higher inflation and rising rates curtail demand growth, it will take time for the gap between labour demand and supply to close enough to put upward pressure on unemployment.
Newly arrived skilled migrants, temporary visa holders, students and backpackers are adding to the supply of workers, but also to already strong demand. So, while the return of migration improves labour mobility and matching, it doesn’t mean the gap is going to close quickly."